小儿先天性心脏病介入术后早期并发心律失常危险因素预测模型的构建

    Construction of a predictive model for risk factors of early postoperative arrhythmias in children with congenital heart disease after interventional surgery

    • 摘要:
      目的探究小儿房间隔缺损(ASD)、室间隔缺损(VSD)介入术后早期并发心律失常的危险因素,并构建风险预测模型。
      方法选取2019-2023年行介入封堵术的ASD、VSD患儿69例,统计早期心律失常的发生率,通过单因素分析、lasso回归分析,筛选出相关的危险因素,构建危险因素模型。
      结果小儿先心病介入术后并发心律失常发生27例,单因素分析显示,性别、年龄、VSD直径、合并膜部瘤、封堵器直径、术前心律失常均与并发早期心律失常有关(P < 0.01);lasso回归分析显示,女性、>3岁为并发早期心律失常保护因素,VSD直径大、术前心律失常、合并膜部瘤、封堵器直径大均为危险因素(P < 0.01)。
      结论先心手术介入患儿并发心律失常风险预测模型,能够帮助医护人员在先心手术前进行风险评估,为制定针对性干预对策提供参考。

       

      Abstract:
      ObjectiveTo explore the risk factors for early postoperative arrhythmias in children with atrial septal defect (ASD) and ventricular septal defect (VSD) after interventional surgery, and construct a risk prediction model.
      MethodsA total ot 69 pediatric patients with ASD and VSD who underwent interventional closure surgery from 2019 to 2023 were selected, and the incidence of early arrhythmia was calculated, and the risk factors were screened by single factor analysis and lasso regression analysis, and the risk factor model was constructed.
      ResultsThere were 27 cases complicated with arrhythmia after interventional surgery for pediatric congenital heart disease.Univariate analysis showed that gender, age, VSD diameter, combined membranous tumor, occluder diameter and preoperative arrhythmia were related to early arrhythmia (P < 0.01).Lasso regression analysis showed that female and >3 years old were protective factors, while VSD diameter, preoperative arrhythmia, combined membranous tumor and occluder diameter were risk factors(P < 0.01).
      ConclusionsThe constructed risk prediction model can help medical staff to evaluate the risk of complications in children undergoing cardiac interventional surgery, and provide reference for formulating targeted intervention strategies.

       

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