大气PM2.5浓度与喘息儿童日就诊量的相关性研究

    Correlation study of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration and daily visits of children with wheezing

    • 摘要:
      目的研究大气PM2.5浓度与喘息儿童日就诊量的关系。
      方法在控制时间的中长期效应、节假日效应、星期效应基础上,利用时间序列的广义相加模型,回顾性分析2019年上海市东部地区某三甲医院儿科门急诊喘息儿童的日就诊量受天气(日平均温度、相对湿度)和大气污染物(PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2及O3)的影响程度,并推测上述指标相应浓度范围的超额危险度(ER)。
      结果上海市东部地区PM2.5浓度对喘息儿童的日就诊量存在影响,大气PM2.5浓度与PM10、SO2和NO2浓度均呈正相关关系(r=0.780、0.601、0.658,P < 0.05);与相对湿度、温度均呈负相关关系(r=-0.015、-0.270,P < 0.05)。PM2.5暴露对日就诊量的影响存在滞后效应,滞后1 d影响最大。单污染物模型结果显示,PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg/m3,日就诊超额危险度(ER)(95%CI)为4.251%(0.824%~7.796%);分别引入当日SO2、NO2及O3建立双污染物质模型,PM2.5+SO2、PM2.5+NO2和PM2.5+O3中,大气PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg/m3,日就诊量ER(95%CI)分别为5.442%(0.747%~10.355%)、5.371%(1.378%~9.522%)和4.535%(1.481%~7.682%)。
      结论大气高浓度PM2.5暴露可能影响喘息儿童日就诊量,使之增加。

       

      Abstract:
      ObjectiveTo study the relationship between atmospheric PM2.5 concentration and daily visits of children with wheezing.
      MethodsUsing the generalized additive model of time series on the basis of controlling for the medium and long-term effects of time, holiday effects, and week effects, we retrospectively analyzed the daily visits of wheezing children in the pediatric emergency department of a tertiary hospital in the eastern region of Shanghai influenced by weather (average daily temperature, relative humidity) and atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2 and O3). The excess risk (ER) of the corresponding concentration range of the above indicators was inferred.
      ResultsPM2.5 concentration in the eastern region of Shanghai had an impact on the daily visits of wheezing children. Atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations were positively correlated with PM10, SO2 and NO2 concentrations (r=0.780, 0.601, 0.658, P < 0.05), and negatively correlated with relative humidity and temperature (r=-0.015, -0.270, P < 0.05). There was a lagged effect of PM2.5 exposure on daily visits, with the greatest effect occurring with a 1-day lag. The results of the single-pollutant model showed a daily visit ER (95%CI) value of 4.251% (0.824%-7.796%) for each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration. The two-pollutant model was established by introducing SO2, NO2 and O3 on the same day, respectively, and the daily visit ER (95%CI) values for each 10 μg/m3 increase in atmospheric PM2.5 concentration in PM2.5+SO2, PM2.5+NO2 and PM2.5+O3 (95%CI) were 5.442% (0.747%-10.355%), 5.371% (1.378%-9.522%) and 4.535% (1.481%-7.682%), respectively.
      ConclusionsExposure to high atmospheric PM2.5 concentration may affect and increase the daily visits of children with wheezing.

       

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