Objective  To analyze the risk factors of acute stress disorder(ASD) during stroke hospitalization, and establish a Nomogram model for individualized early warning.

Methods  One hundred and eighty-two stroke patients were selected as the as model group, and subdivided into the ASD group(80 cases) and non-ASD group(102 cases) according to whether the ASD occurred.At the same time, 134 stroke patients with hospitalization were selected as the validation group.The logistic regression andlysis was used to analyze the independent risk factors of ASD in stroke patients in the model group.The nomogram model for evaluating the occurrence of ASD in stroke patients was established and verified by R software, and the evaluation value of model was evaluated by ROC curve.

Results  There were statistically significant in the age, personality, swallowing dysfunction and hemiplegia between the ASD group and non-ASD group(P < 0.05).For the ASD group, the patients were mainly introverted, and more than 60 years old, and the proportion of swallowing dysfunction and hemiplegia were higher(P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The results of logistic regression analysis showed that the age(OR=1.527, 95%CI: 1.072-2.268), personality(OR=1.619, 95%CI: 1.060-2.473), swallowing dysfunction(OR=1.696, 95%CI: 1.128-2.549) and hemiplegia(OR=1.250, 95%CI: 1.250-2.472) were the independent influencing factors of ASD(P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The Nomogram model predicted that the C-index of the model group and validation group were 0.822 and 0.803, respectively.The results of ROC curve showed that the AUC value of the Nomogram model for predicting ASD in the model group and validation group were 0.822(95%CI: 0.757-0.888) and 0.809(95%CI: 0.748-0.870), respectively.

Conclusions  The age, personality, swallowing dysfunction and hemiplegia are the independent risk factors of ASD in hospitalized stroke patients, and the Nomogram model established with the above indicators has good predictive performance.