Objective To understand the current situation and influencing factors of single childbearing intention of women of childbearing age in Anhui province, and build a prediction model of single childbearing intention, so as to provide reference for relevant departments.

Methods Women with childbearing age in southern Anhui, northern Anhui and central Anhui were selected by target sampling method, and divided into the single and non-single childbearing groups according to whether they had single childbearing intention. Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of single childbearing intention. Hosmer-Lemeshow test and ROC curve were used to test the goodness of fit and prediction effects of model, respectively.

Results Among 784 women, 21.94% (172/784) had the single childbearing intention. Whether single child or not, education level, childbearing cost, childbearing utility and childbearing tendency were the influencing factors of single childbearing intention (P ＜ 0.01). The model had good goodness of fit (χ² = 8.89, P ＞ 0.05), and the AUC under ROC curve was 0.876 (P ＜ 0.01, 95%CI: 0.845–0.907), the sensitivity was 73.8%, the specificity was 88.7%, and the accuracy was 89.2%.

Conclusions The single childbearing intention of women of childbearing age in Anhui province not only occurs in single and divorced women, but also in some married women. The four aspects of childbearing intention are: the number of children is mostly one, the gender preference is mostly none, the age is mostly 30–34 years old, and the childbearing motivation is mostly to avoid marriage risk. The only child, the higher the education level, the greater the childbearing utility and childbearing tendency, and the lower the childbearing cost, the easier it is to have single childbearing intention.