宫颈癌病人术中低体温风险预测模型的构建及应用效果

    Construction and application effect of prediction model for intraoperative hypothermia risk in cervical cancer patients

    • 摘要: 目的: 探讨宫颈癌病人术中低体温的危险因素,并建立预测宫颈癌病人术中低体温的列线图模型。方法: 选取622例行手术治疗的宫颈癌病人作为研究对象,采用LASSO分析和logistic回归分析筛选宫颈癌病人术中低体温的危险因素,采用R软件建立预测宫颈癌病人术中低体温的风险列线图模型。结果: 622例宫颈癌病人中,49例(7.88%)术中发生低体温。logistic回归分析结果显示,体质量指数<23.8 kg/m2、麻醉时间≥190 min、手术时间≥169 min、术中输血、术中补液量≥2 000 mL、开放手术及术中室温≤23 ℃是宫颈癌病人术中低体温的危险因素(P<0.05~P<0.01)。列线图模型结果显示,C-index为0.804(95%CI:0.769~0.839),校正曲线和理想曲线基本一致,AUC为0.788(95%CI:0.728~0.849)。结论: 体质量指数<23.8 kg/m2、麻醉时间≥190 min、手术时间≥169 min、术中输血、术中补液量≥2 000 mL、开放手术及术中室温≤23 ℃是宫颈癌病人术中低体温的危险因素,基于危险因素建立的列线图有助于预测病人术中低体温的发生风险和提前制定相关的防治措施。

       

      Abstract: Objective: To explore the risk factors for intraoperative hypothermia in cervical cancer patients,and to construct a nomogram model to predict intraoperative hypothermia in cervical cancer patients. Methods: A total of 622 cervical cancer patients undergoing surgical treatment were selected as the study subjects.LASSO analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to screen risk factors for intraoperative hypothermia in cervical cancer patients,and R software was applied to construct a nomogram model to predict intraoperative hypothermia in cervical cancer patients. Results: Among the 622 cervical cancer patients,49 cases had hypothermia during operation,and the incidence of hypothermia was 7.88%.The results of logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index <23.8 kg/m2,anesthesia time≥190 min,operation time≥169 min,intraoperative blood transfusion,intraoperative fluid replacement volume≥2 000 mL,open operation,and intraoperative room temperature≤23 ℃ were risk factors for intraoperative hypothermia in cervical cancer patients (P<0.05 to P<0.01).The results of the nomogram model indicated that the C-index was 0.804 (95%CI:0.769-0.839),and the calibration curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.788 (95%CI:0.728-0.849). Conclusions: Body mass index<23.8 kg/m2,anesthesia time≥190 min,operation time≥169 min,intraoperative blood transfusion,intraoperative fluid replacement volume≥2 000 mL,open operation,and intraoperative room temperature≤23 ℃ are risk factors for intraoperative hypothermia in cervical cancer patients.The constructed nomogram model based on the risk factors is helpful to predict the risk of intraoperative hypothermia in patients and formulate relevant prevention and treatment measures in advance.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回