基于LASSO机器学习算法的T1期胃癌淋巴结转移预测模型构建

    LASSO machine learning algorithm-based lymph node metastasis prediction model construction for T1 stage gastric cancer

    • 摘要: 目的:探讨T1期胃癌淋巴结转移的危险因素,并基于LASSO机器学习算法构建预测模型。方法:回顾性收集2010—2017年在蚌埠医科大学第一附属医院接受诊疗的胃癌病人临床及病理资料。依据术后病理报告中的淋巴结转移结果对胃癌病人进行分组。将T1期胃癌病人分为训练集和验证集。在训练集中,通过LASSO机器学习算法计算T1期胃癌淋巴结转移的独立危险因素,并构建预测模型及Nomogram列线图,在验证集中对预测模型进行验证。结果:共纳入433例T1期胃癌病人。单因素logistic回归分析结果显示,中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比率、癌胚抗原、组织学分级、肿瘤位置和浸润深度T分期是淋巴结转移的危险因素(P<0.05~P<0.01)。LASSO变量筛选结果显示,性别、中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比率、血红蛋白、癌胚抗原、组织学分级、肿瘤大小、浸润深度等7个因素可用于构建T1期胃癌发生淋巴结转移的预测模型。该模型在训练集中和验证集中均具有良好的预测淋巴结转移的能力,AUC分别为0.745、0.694。结论:基于LASSO机器学习算法的预测模型能够有效地识别T1期胃癌的淋巴结转移,为临床诊疗提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Objective: To explore the risk factors for lymph node metastasis in patients with T1 stage gastric cancer and construct a prediction model using the LASSO machine learning algorithm. Methods: A retrospective collection of clinical and pathological data of gastric cancer patients who received treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University from 2010 to 2017 was conducted.Patients were grouped based on lymph node metastasis results from postoperative pathological reports.The T1 stage gastric cancer patients were divided into a training set and a validation set.In the training set,the LASSO machine learning algorithm was utilized to identify independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in T1 stage gastric cancer and construct a prediction model and a nomogram.The prediction model was validated using the validation set. Results: A total of 433 patients with T1 stage gastric cancer were included.Results of univariate logistic regression analysis showed that NLR,CEA,histological grade,tumor location,and T stage infiltration depth were significant risk factors for lymph node metastasis (P<0.05 to P<0.01).LASSO variable selection indicated that gender,NLR,HB,CEA,histological grade,tumor size,and infiltration depth were the seven factors used to construct the prediction model for lymph node metastasis in T1 stage gastric cancer.The model exhibited good predictive ability for lymph node metastasis in both the training set and validation set(AUC=0.745,0.694). Conclusions: The prediction model based on the LASSO machine learning algorithm can effectively identify lymph node metastasis in T1 stage gastric cancer,providing valuable insights for clinical diagnosis and treatment.

       

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