前置胎盘病人不良妊娠发生的超声及临床关联因素及列线图风险预测模型构建

    Ultrasonography and clinic-associated factors of adverse pregnancy in patients with placenta previa and construction of a nomogram risk prediction model

    • 摘要: 目的:研究前置胎盘病人不良妊娠发生的超声及临床关联因素及预测模型构建。方法:选取2021年1月至2024年9月105例前置胎盘病人作为研究对象进行回顾性研究,依据病历系统记录是否发生不良妊娠结局(包括早产、窒息、低出生体质量儿等新生儿不良结局,以及产后出血、子宫切除等产妇不良结局)分为发生组(n=33)、未发生组(n=72),收集病人临床资料并进行对比,纳入logistic回归模型中分析前置胎盘病人不良妊娠结局发生的相关因素,并构建临床预测模型,以列线图进行可视化呈现,通过绘制ROC曲线、校准曲线、决策曲线进行内部验证评估列线图模型预测能力。结果:2组病人流产史、产次、再次妊娠间隔时间<1年、子宫病变、瘢痕子宫、胎盘植入比较差异有统计学意义,logistic回归分析结果发现,上述指标均为影响前置胎盘病人不良妊娠结局发生的危险因素(P<0.05~P<0.01)。基于logistic建立上述五项预测因子在内的预测模型,并画出对应列线图,并采取ROC曲线对该模型进行内部验证,ROC曲线中AUC值为0.865(95%CI:0.768~0.962),Brier Score为0.107,模型拟合度P值为0.002,统计量为20.621,由此表示该临床预测模型具有较好的风险预测度。结论:流产史、产次、再次妊娠间隔时间<1年、子宫病变、瘢痕子宫、胎盘植入均为前置胎盘病人不良妊娠结局发生的独立影响因素,通过上述指标筛查高危群体,为孕期采取科学有效的临床干预措施提供理论参考依据。

       

      Abstract: Objective: To study the ultrasonography and clinic-associated correlation factors of adverse pregnancy in patients with placenta previa,and build a prediction model. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 105 patients with placenta previa from January 2021 to September 2024.Based on the medical record system,the patients were divided into the occurrence group(n=33) and non-occurrence group(n=72) according to the adverse pregnancy outcome including the neonatal adverse outcomes(premature birth,asphyxia and low birth weight infants) and adverse maternal outcomes(such as postpartum hemorrhage and hysterectomy).The clinical relevant data of patients were collected and compared,and the logistic regression model was used to analyze the related factors of adverse pregnancy outcomes in patients with placenta previa.A clinical prediction model was constructed and presented visually through a nomogram.The predictive ability of nomogram model was evaluated through internal validation by drawing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve,calibration curve and decision curve. Results: The differences in the history of miscarriage,parity,interval of second pregnancy <1 year,uterine lesions,scarred uterus and placenta accreta were statistically significant between two groups (P<0.05 to P<0.01).The results of logistic regression analysis revealed that all the above indicators were the risk factors affecting the occurrence of adverse pregnancy outcomes in patients with placenta previa(P<0.05 to P<0.01).Based on logistic analysis,a prediction model including the above five predictors was established,and the corresponding nomogram was drawn.The ROC curve was used to internally validate the model.The AUC value was 0.865(95%CI:0.768-0.962),the Brier Score was 0.107,and the P value of model fit was 0.002,with a statistic of 20.621,which indicated that this clinical prediction model had a relatively good risk prediction accuracy. Conclusions: The abortion history,birth time,second pregnancy interval<1 year,uterine lesions,scarred uterus and placenta implantation are all the independent influencing factors of adverse pregnancy outcomes in patients with placenta previa.Screening the high-risk groups by these indicators can provide the theoretical reference for scientific and effective clinical intervention measures during pregnancy.

       

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