颅内动脉瘤病人介入栓塞术后心理痛苦的影响因素分析及其列线图预测模型构建

    Analysis of factors influencing psychological distress in patients with intracranial aneurysm after interventional embolization and construction of a nomogram prediction model

    • 摘要: 目的:分析颅内动脉瘤(IA)病人介入栓塞术后发生心理痛苦的影响因素并构建列线图预测模型。方法:采用便利抽样法选取行介入栓塞术的126例IA病人作为研究对象。采用单因素分析和多因素logistic回归分析探讨IA病人介入栓塞术后发生心理痛苦的影响因素,并构建列线图预测模型,使用ROC曲线评估预测模型效能。结果:IA病人介入栓塞术后心理痛苦评分为(5.49±1.76)分,其中显著性心理痛苦者为87例(69.05%)。单因素分析显示,显著性心理痛苦者与非显著性心理痛苦者年龄、合并慢性病、文化程度、家庭人均月收入及日常生活活动能力量表(ADL)评分差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05~P<0.01)。多因素logistic回归分析显示,合并慢性病、ADL评分上升是IA病人介入栓塞术后发生心理痛苦的危险因素(P<0.01和P<0.05);年龄、文化程度及家庭人均月收入是发生心理痛苦的保护因素(P<0.05)。基于上述影响因素构建可视化列线图风险预测模型,AUC为0.823(95%CI:0.747~0.898,P<0.01),灵敏度为66.7%,特异度为84.6%;模型内部验证显示,C-index指数为0.842,校正曲线与理想曲线拟合良好。结论:年龄、合并慢性病、文化程度、家庭人均月收入及ADL评分是IA病人介入栓塞术后发生心理痛苦的影响因素,基于上述影响因素构建的风险预测模型具有良好效能,有助于尽早识别高风险病人。

       

      Abstract: Objective: To analyze factors influencing psychological distress in patients with intracranial aneurysms (IA) after interventional embolization,and construct a nomogram prediction model. Methods: Using convenience sampling method,126 IA patients undergoing interventional embolization were selected as the study subjects.Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were utilized to identify factors influencing psychological distress in IA patients after interventional embolization,and a nomogram prediction model was constructed.The ROC curve was used to evaluate the efficacy of the prediction model. Results: The psychological distress score of IA patients after interventional embolization was (5.49±1.76) points,and 87 patients (69.05%) had significant psychological distress.Univariate analysis revealed that there were statistically significant differences in age,combined chronic diseases,educational level,average monthly household income,and activity of daily living (ADL) score between patients with significant psychological distress and those without significant psychological distress (P<0.05 to P<0.01).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the presence of combined chronic diseases and an increase in ADL score were risk factors for psychological distress in IA patients after interventional embolization (P<0.01 and P<0.05);age,educational level,and average monthly household income were protective factors for psychological distress (P<0.05).Based on these influencing factors,a visual nomogram risk prediction model was constructed.The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.823 (95%CI:0.747-0.898,P<0.01),with the sensitivity of 66.7% and specificity of 84.6%.Internal validation of the model showed that C-index was 0.842,and the calibration curve fitted well with the ideal curve. Conclusions: Age,combined chronic diseases,educational level,average monthly household income,and ADL score are influencing factors of psychological distress in IA patients after interventional embolization.The risk prediction model constructed based on these influencing factors exhibits good efficacy and can help identify high-risk patients as early as possible.

       

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