高脂血症性胰腺炎病人疾病复发预测模型构建及影响因素研究

    Construction of a disease recurrence prediction model for patients with hyperlipidemic pancreatitis and its influencing factors research

    • 摘要:
      目的: 探索高脂血症性胰腺炎(HLAP)病人出院后1年内的复发危险因素以及构建其预测模型,并且分析生活方式管理对疾病复发的作用。
      方法: 选取146例HLAP病人作为研究对象,根据出院后1年是否复发分成复发组和非复发组。通过单因素分析和多因素logistic回归分析HLAP发生复发的影响因素,并借助受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线验证预测模型的拟合优度与预测效果。
      结果: 146例病人中30例发生疾病复发,复发率为20.54%。单因素分析结果显示,年龄、经济收入、体质量指数、饮食习惯、健康促进生活方式评分、自我管理能力评分等因素与复发存在关联(P < 0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析显示,45 ~ 90岁(相较于18 ~ 44岁),暴饮暴食(相较于清淡饮食组)、体质量指数高、健康促进生活方式评分低和自我管理能力评分低是HLAP复发的危险因素(P < 0.05)。预测模型拟合良好(P < 0.05),ROC曲线下面积为0.942(P < 0.01,95%CI:0.915 ~ 0.969),灵敏度为85.2%,特异度为93.1%。
      结论: HLAP病人出院后复发风险较高;复发影响因素除年龄外,主要为饮食习惯和自我管理能力2个方面;建议临床工作者着重关注年龄大、暴饮暴食行为和自我管理能力低的高危人群,实施针对性干预策略,优化长期预后管理效果。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To explore the risk factors for recurrence within one year after discharge in patients with hyperlipidemic pancreatitis (HLAP), and construct a predictive model for it, and analyze the role of lifestyle management in disease recurrence.
      Methods A total of 146 patients with HLAP were selected as the research subjects, and divided into the recurrence group and non-recurrence group according to whether there was recurrence one year after discharge. The influencing factors of HLAP recurrence were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the goodness of fit and predictive effects of the predictive model were verified by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.
      Results Among the 146 patients, 30 cases had disease recurrence, with a recurrence rate of 20.54%. The results of univariate analysis showed that the age, economic income, body mass index, dietary habits, health-promoting lifestyle score, and self-management ability score were associated with recurrence (P < 0.05). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the overeating (compared with the light diet group), high body mass index, low score of health-promoting lifestyle and low score of self-management ability in the 45–90 age group (compared with the 18-44 age group) were the risk factors for HLAP recurrence (P < 0.05). The predictive model fitted well (P < 0.05), the area under the ROC curve was 0.942 (P < 0.01, 95%CI: 0.915–0.969), the sensitivity was 85.2%, and the specificity was 93.1%.
      Conclusions Patients with HLAP have a relatively high risk of recurrence after discharge. The factors influencing recurrence, apart from age, mainly include two aspects: dietary habits and self-management ability. It is recommended that clinical workers pay particular attention to the high-risk groups such as the elderly, those with binge eating behavior and low self-management ability, implement targeted intervention strategies, and optimize the long-term prognosis management effects.

       

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