基于机器学习的ICU病人肠内营养喂养不耐受危险因素分析

    Analysis of risk factors for enteral feeding intolerance in ICU patients based on machine learning algorithms

    • 摘要:
      目的: 基于机器学习算法分析ICU病人肠内营养喂养不耐受(ENFI)的危险因素。
      方法: 回顾性分析2022年于某三级乙等医院综合性ICU行肠内营养支持的病人,依据喂养过程中是否发生不耐受现象分为不耐受组(n = 199)与耐受组(n = 127)。输入指标的选择采用单因素logistic回归分析,应用机器学习建立多因素logistic回归、随机森林、决策树、朴素贝叶斯和XGBoost算法预测模型。选取2023年1—2月同一医院ICU肠内营养支持的46例病人对模型施以验证,比较5种方法构建的模型对ICU病人ENFI的预测价值,基于预测效能最优的模型筛选危险因素。
      结果: ICU病人ENFI发生率为61.04%(199/326)。基于机器学习算法构建的5种ICU病人ENFI风险预测模型中,随机森林模型的预测效能最优(AUC = 0.831)。随机森林模型分析结果显示,白蛋白、ICU住院时间、急性生理与慢性健康评分系统Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)评分是ICU病人ENFI的重要影响因素。
      结论: ICU病人ENFI发生率较高,临床医护人员应重视低白蛋白水平,ICU住院时间较长且APACHE Ⅱ评分较高的病人,及时补充蛋白类药物,做好喂养耐受性管理,从而降低ENFI发生率。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To analyze the risk factors of enteral nutrition feeding intolerance in ICU patients based on machine learning algorithms.
      Methods Data of comprehensive ICU patients who received enteral nutrition support from a tertiary grade B hospital from January 2022 to December 2022 were retrospectively collected. According to whether feeding intolerance occurred or not, they were divided into intolerance group (n = 199) and tolerance group (n = 127). Univariate logistic regression was used to filter input indicators. Logistic regression, random forest, decision tree, Naive Bayes and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms based on machine learning were used to construct predictive models. From January to February 2023, 46 ICU patients supported by enteral nutrition in the same hospital were selected to verify the model. The models constructed by the five methods were compared for predictive value of ENFI in ICU patients. The risk factors were screened based on the best predictive model.
      Results The incidence of ENFI in ICU patients was 61.04% (199/326). Among the five machine learning algorithm models, the random forest model had the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.831). The analysis results of the random forest model showed that albumin, length of ICU stay, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score were important influencing factors for ENFI in ICU patients.
      Conclusion The incidence of ENFI in ICU patients is relatively high. Clinical medical staff should pay attention to patients with low albumin levels, prolonged ICU stays, and higher APACHE II scores, timely supplement protein-based drugs, and manage feeding tolerance well, in order to reduce the incidence of ENFI.

       

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