王帮璇, 元永艇, 张丽, 张子喆, 付连国. 新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡病例变化趋势及其从发病到死亡时间的特征分析[J]. 蚌埠医学院学报, 2020, 45(2): 141-147. DOI: 10.13898/j.cnki.issn.1000-2200.2020.02.001
    引用本文: 王帮璇, 元永艇, 张丽, 张子喆, 付连国. 新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡病例变化趋势及其从发病到死亡时间的特征分析[J]. 蚌埠医学院学报, 2020, 45(2): 141-147. DOI: 10.13898/j.cnki.issn.1000-2200.2020.02.001
    WANG Bang-xuan, YUAN Yong-ting, ZHANG Li, ZHANG Zi-zhe, FU Lian-guo. Trend of death cases of corona virus disease 2019 and its characteristic analysis from onset to death[J]. Journal of Bengbu Medical College, 2020, 45(2): 141-147. DOI: 10.13898/j.cnki.issn.1000-2200.2020.02.001
    Citation: WANG Bang-xuan, YUAN Yong-ting, ZHANG Li, ZHANG Zi-zhe, FU Lian-guo. Trend of death cases of corona virus disease 2019 and its characteristic analysis from onset to death[J]. Journal of Bengbu Medical College, 2020, 45(2): 141-147. DOI: 10.13898/j.cnki.issn.1000-2200.2020.02.001

    新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡病例变化趋势及其从发病到死亡时间的特征分析

    Trend of death cases of corona virus disease 2019 and its characteristic analysis from onset to death

    • 摘要:
      目的分析新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡病例变化趋势以及其从发病到死亡时间的特征,为有效降低新型冠状病毒肺炎病死率提供理论依据。
      方法整理国家卫生健康委、湖北省卫生健康委在2019年1月10日至2020年2月11日发布的全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)每日新增确诊病例数、死亡病例数以及17例死亡病例资料。
      结果截至2020年2月11日24时,全国新型冠状病毒肺炎病死率为2.49%,湖北省为3.19%,其他省(自治区、直辖市)为0.4%。新型冠状病毒肺炎病死率1月15日达高峰点(全国、湖北省均为4.9%),后开始持续下降,1月19日病死率达低点(全国、湖北省均为2.02%),1月24-26日达到另一高峰期全国在2.85%~3.22%,湖北省在4.94%~5.35%,其他省(自治区、直辖市)1月25日达高峰点为0.44%,后开始持续下降,全国、湖北省2月5日达低点(分别为2.01%、2.79%),其他省(自治区、直辖市)2月4日病死率达最低点为0.14%,从2月5日开始呈持续上升趋势。男性、≥70岁、无咳嗽症状、有气促或喘息或呼吸困难、无乏力或全身酸痛发病到死亡时间较短,但差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。
      结论新型冠状病毒肺炎病死率可能继续呈现上升趋势,应加强防控知识宣传提高及早就医意识缩短就诊时间。

       

      Abstract:
      ObjectiveTo analyze the change trend of death cases of corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19) and its characteristics from the time of onset to death, and to provide a theoretical basis for effectively reducing the mortality of this disease.
      MethodsThe data on number of new cases, death cases per day and 17 death cases in 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) issued by the National Health Commission, Health Commission of Hubei Province from January 10, 2019 to February 11, 2020 were collected and analyzed.
      ResultsUp to 24:00 on February 11, 2020, the mortality of COVID-19 in China was 2.49%, including 3.19% in Hubei province and 0.4% in other provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities).The mortality of COVID-19 reached a peak point on January 15 (4.9% in China and in Hubei province), and then continued to decline to the low point on January 19 (2.02% in China and Hubei province).It reached another peak point from January 24 to 26 (2.85%-3.22% in China, 4.94%-5.35% in Hubei province, and in other provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) reached a peak point of 0.44% on January 25).It began to decline continuously later, the mortality in China and Hubei province reached a low point on February 5 (2.01% and 2.79%, respectively), and in other provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) reached the lowest point of 0.14% on February 4, then began to rise continuously from February 5.The time of onset to death in cases of male, ≥70 years old, no cough symptoms, shortness of breath or wheeze or dyspnea, no fatigue or general soreness was shorter.
      ConclusionsThe mortality of COVID-19 may be on the rise.It is necessary to strengthen publicity of prevention and control knowledge, improve the awareness of early medical treatment, and shorten the time of consultation.

       

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