The prediction of the growth of per capita hospital cost in a county using regression model and its causes analysis

Objective: To predict the per capita hospital cost in a county general hospital in 2015 in order to provide the evidence for the patients and health department formulating the health policy.Methods: The historical data of patients from 2006 to 2014 were analyzed.The linear regression model was established using the least sum of squares,the estimating standard error was calculated,and the forecasting model was amended.The per capita hospital cost in a county general hospital in 2015 was predicted using the regression model.Results: The relation of time(t) and per capita hospital cost(Y) was linear regression.With the time prolonging,the per capita hospital cost increased continuously.The predictive value of per capita hospital cost in a county general hospital in 2015 was 2907.63 Yuan,the 95% of the confidence interval was 2 563.72 to 3 521.54 Yuan.Conclusions: The per capita hospital cost increasing with years reflects the beneficial problems of health resource allocation.Some suggestions should be provided,which can lighten the burden of inpatient medical cost,and promote the development of hospital harmony.