The predictive value of the combined detection of NLR and WBC in severe hand foot and mouth disease

ObjectiveTo evaluate the predictive value of the combined detection of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR) and white blood count(WBC) in severe hand foot mouth disease(HFMD) by ROC curve and logistic regression.

MethodsThe clinical data of WBC, blood glucose(GLU), neutrophils, procalcitonin(PCT), NLR and pre-albumin(PA) in 44 cases with severe HFMD and 42 cases with mild HFMD were collected, the ROC curve was drew, and the logistic regression analysis was conducted.

ResultsThe differences of the PA, PCT, GLU, NLR and WBC between the severe group and mild group were statistically significant(P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The ROC curve showed that the optimal threshold of NLR was 2.252, and the WBC predicted that the optimal threshold of severe change was 13.19×10⁹/L.After two continuous variable indixes were reassigned, the results of logistic multifactor regression analysis showed that the NLR and WBC were independent risk factors of severe HFMD.The regression equation of the prediction model was Logit(P)=-2.601+2.933X₁+4.530X₂, and the goodness of fit test of the model showed that the P value was 0.830, which was more than 0.05.When two indictors were tested together, the sensitivity and specificity of the series predicting severe HFMD were 70.45% and 100.00%, respectively, and the AUC was 0.852.The sensitivity and specificity of the parallel predicting severe HFMD were 93.18% and 88.10%, respectively, and the AUC was 0.906.

ConclusionThe combined detection of NLR and WBC has important clinical predictive value for severe HFMD.