Risk factors analysis and risk prediction model of female breast cancer in Anhui Province

ObjectiveTo establish a risk prediction model of breast cancer and provide evidence for the prevention of female breast cancer.

MethodsBased on the cancer registration or medical insurance reimbursement system, the cancer patients aged 35 and above who were diagnosed with cancer in Anhui province since 2015 were investigated, and the residents who had not been diagnosed with any cancer in the community where the cancer cases were located during the same period were selected as the comtrol.Logistic regression model was used to screen the risk factors of breast cancer, and the corresponding OR value was obtained and assigned scores.The risk factor index and protective factor index of breast cancer were calculated, respectively.The risk prediction model of breast cancer was established by using "modified Harvard risk index" and "age-factor weighted index".

ResultsThe risk factors of breast cancer were as follows: nipple discharge, accumulated years of breast mass, menopause, heavy diet salt, sulking and family history of breast cancer(P < 0.01).Hypertension / hyperglycemia / hyperlipidemia, incidence of malaria, frequent insomnia and dreams, age of first menstruation >13 years old, frequent eating of fresh fruit and regular physical exercise were protective factors(P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The final risk prediction model for breast cancer was R=ln(breast cancer incidence index) ×2+breast cancer risk factor index-1.3×breast cancer protective factor index, and the AUC value was 0.779.

ConclusionsThe risk prediction model of female breast cancer in Anhui province is successfully constructed.The prediction effect is good, which is helpful to evaluate and find residents with high tumor risk, and then concentrate resources to carry out key preventive intervention.