Multivariate regression analysis of the prognosis of esophageal cancer patients with intensity modulated radiotherapy and its prediction model construction

ObjectiveTo investigate the prognostic factors of intensity modulated radiotherapy(IMRT) in esophagus cancer, and construct a Nomogram model to predict the prognosis of patients.

MethodsThe clinical data of 80 esophageal cancer patients treated with IMRT from September 2012 to October 2015 were retrospectively analyzed.The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year and 5-year survival rates of esophageal cancer patients, the Log Rank method was used to perform univariate prognostic analysis, the Cox method was used to screen the independent factors affecting survival, and the R software was used to establish a Nomogram prediction model.

ResultsThe median time of follow-up was 36 months.The 1-year, 2-year, 3-year and 5-year survival rates were 72.50%, 61.25%, 53.75% and 22.50%, respectively.The results of univariate analysis showed that the tumor length, T stage, N stage, TNM stage, chemotherapy application, gross tumor volume(GTV), single or multiple lesions, radiotherapy dose were related to the prognosis of patients with IMRT(P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The results of Cox multivariate analysis showed that the N stage, chemotherapy application, radiotherapy dose and GTV were the independent predictors of the prognosis of esophageal cancer(P < 0.01).The C-index of this Nomogram prediction model was 0.746(95%CI: 0.633-0.895).

ConclusionsThe N stage, chemotherapy application, radiotherapy dose and GTV are the independent factors of influencing the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer, and this Nomogram model based on the above results can well predict the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer.