Establishment of prediction model of stress injury after cardiopulmonary bypass

ObjectiveTo establish a prediction model of stress injury after cardiopulmonary bypass.

MethodsA total of 543 patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass heart surgery were selected as the research objects.According to the occurrence of pressure injury, they were divided into pressure injury group (n=164) and non-pressure injury group (n=379).The risk factors of pressure injury after cardiopulmonary bypass heart surgery were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and the nomogram prediction model was established.

ResultsUnivariate analysis showed that there were significant differences between the two groups in age, anemia, prealbumin level, minimum intraoperative temperature, duration of cardiopulmonary bypass and operation duration (P < 0.01).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years old, anemia, prealbumin level < 280 mg/L, duration of cardiopulmonary bypass ≥ 100 min and operation duration ≥ 4 h were independent risk factors for stress injury after cardiopulmonary bypass (P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The validation results of nomogram model showed that the C-index was 0.714, the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, and the AUC of ROC curve was 0.702(95%CI: 0.681-0.727).In the range of 10%-70%, the nomogram model had a net benefit.

ConclusionsAge ≥ 60 years old, anemia, prealbumin level < 280 mg/L, duration of cardiopulmonary bypass ≥ 100 min and operation duration ≥ 4 h will increase the risk of stress injury after cardiopulmonary bypass.The nomogram model constructed according to risk factors can effectively predict the risk of stress injury after cardiopulmonary bypass.