Application of ARIMA-BP hybrid model on incidence prediction of hepatitis E in China based on residual correction

ObjectiveTo explore the role of ARIMA-BP hybrid model based on residual correction in predicting the epidemic trend of hepatitis E infectious diseases in China.

MethodsThe ARIMA and ARIMA-BP models were established by SPSS software based on the statistical data of hepatitis E in China from January 2004 to December 2017.The data of hepatitis E in China from January 2018 to December 2018 were used as the comparison value to analyze the prediction effect of the model.

ResultsThe overall index values of E, ER, MAE, MSE and MAPE of ARIMA-BP hybrid model were smaller than those of ARIMA model.

ConclusionsThe prediction effect of ARIMA-BP hybrid model is better than that of ARIMA model, which can be used for the early prediction of the incidence trend of hepatitis E in China.