Establishment and validation of risk nomogram model for individual prediction of severity of periodontal disease in elderly patients

ObjectiveTo construct a risk nomogram model for predicting the severity of periodontal disease in elderly patients, and to verify the predictive efficacy of the model.

MethodsA total of 279 elderly patients with periodontal disease were selected as the research objects, and the relevant data of the patients were collected.Univariate logistic regression was used to analyze the related factors affecting the progression of the elderly patients with periodontal disease to moderate to serve level, and the nomogram prediction model was established.

ResultsAmong the 279 cases, 83 cases (29.7%) were mild, 196 cases (70.3%) were moderate and severe.Age ≥70 years old, smoking, diabetes mellitus, unilateral chewing, brushing frequency < 2 times/d were the independent risk factors for the progression of moderate to severe periodontal disease in elderly patients (P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).Based on the above five risk factors, the relevant nomogram model was established and verified.The results showed that the C-index of training set and validation set were 0.734 (95%CI: 0.712-0.758) and 0.717 (95%CI: 0.698-0.738), respectively.The calibration curve and ideal curve fitting of the two sets were well reflected, and the AUC of the two sets were 0.751 and 0.748, respectively.

ConclusionsThere are many risk factors for the progression of periodontal disease in elderly patients.The nomogram model based on risk factors has good predictive ability, which can provide reference for early clinical control of periodontal disease.