Establishment of a risk prediction model for venous thrombosis in breast cancer patients with chest wall venous ports

Objective To understand the occurrence of venous thrombosis in chest wall totally implantable venous ports (TIVAP) in patients with breast cancer, and establish a risk prediction model.

Methods A total of 347 breast cancer chemotherapy patients who underwent TIVAP implantation in the department of nail and breast surgery were retrospectively analyzed.According to whether venous thrombosis occurred or not, they were divided into the non-venous thrombosis group (288 cases) and the venous thrombosis group (59 cases).General data of patients and disease-related specialty data were collected, and the risk factors for venous thrombosis in patients with TIVAP implantation were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods.A risk prediction model for venous thrombosis was established based on the results, and ROC curves were plotted to test the efficacy of the prediction model.

Results Among 347 breast cancer chemotherapy patients with TIVAP implantation, 59 cases of venous thrombosis occurred, with an incidence rate of 17.0%.The neoadjuvant chemotherapy, tumor stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ, the catheter tip located in the anterior rib 1-2, and increased D-dimer were risk factors for the occurrence of venous thrombosis after TIVAP implantation in breast cancer chemotherapy patients (P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC for constructing the TIVAP venous thrombosis prediction model according to each risk factor was 0.873, sensitivity was 0.849, specificity was 0.822, and accuracy was 95.6%.

Conclusions The neoadjuvant chemotherapy, tumor stage, catheter tip location, and increased D-dimer in breast cancer patients with TIVAP are risk factors for the occurrence of developing venous thrombosis, and venous thrombosis has a good predictive efficacy.