Prediction of the incidence trend of hepatitis B with grey system model GM(1,1) in Changzhou city

Objective:To establish the grey system model GM(1,1) for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis B in Changzhou city.Methods:Grey Model(1,1) was established according to the data of the incidence of hepatitis B from China information system for disease control and prevention during 2004 to 2011 in Changzhou city,which was used to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in 2012,2013,2014.Results:The x(1)(k+1)=-228.213 9 e-0.237 73k+304.554 0,of prediction model GM(1,1) was established.The fitting accuracy of the model was excellentCheck differential ratio(C)=0.069,probabe error(P)=1.The incidence rates of hepatitis B in Changzhou city from 2012 to 2014 were 9.143 5,7.208 9 and 5.6836 per hundred thousand using the model predicting,respectively.Conclusions:The grey system model GM(1,1) can fairly predict the incidence trend of hepatitis B in Changzhou city,and the predicting results have reference value.